Over the past few decades, many applications of physics-based simulations and data-driven techniques (including machine learning and deep learning) have emerged to analyze and predict solar flares. These approaches are pivotal in understanding the dynamics of solar flares, primarily aiming to forecast these events and minimize potential risks they may pose to Earth. Although current methods have made significant progress, there are still limitations to these data-driven approaches. One prominent drawback is the lack of consideration for the temporal evolution characteristics in the active regions from which these flares originate. This oversight hinders the ability of these methods to grasp the relationships between high-dimensional active region features, thereby limiting their usability in operations. This study centers on the development of interpretable classifiers for multivariate time series and the demonstration of a novel feature ranking method with sliding window-based sub-interval ranking. The primary contribution of our work is to bridge the gap between complex, less understandable black-box models used for high-dimensional data and the exploration of relevant sub-intervals from multivariate time series, specifically in the context of solar flare forecasting. Our findings demonstrate that our sliding-window time series forest classifier performs effectively in solar flare prediction (with a True Skill Statistic of over 85\%) while also pinpointing the most crucial features and sub-intervals for a given learning task.

Most existing Time series classification (TSC) models lack interpretability and are difficult to inspect. Interpretable machine learning models can aid in discovering patterns in data as well as give easy-to-understand insights to domain specialists. In this study, we present Neuro-Symbolic Time Series Classification (NSTSC), a neuro-symbolic model that leverages signal temporal logic (STL) and neural network (NN) to accomplish TSC tasks using multi-view data representation and expresses the model as a human-readable, interpretable formula. In NSTSC, each neuron is linked to a symbolic expression, i.e., an STL (sub)formula. The output of NSTSC is thus interpretable as an STL formula akin to natural language, describing temporal and logical relations hidden in the data. We propose an NSTSC-based classifier that adopts a decision-tree approach to learn formula structures and accomplish a multiclass TSC task. The proposed smooth activation functions for wSTL allow the model to be learned in an end-to-end fashion. We test NSTSC on a real-world wound healing dataset from mice and benchmark datasets from the UCR time-series repository, demonstrating that NSTSC achieves comparable performance with the state-of-the-art models. Furthermore, NSTSC can generate interpretable formulas that match with domain knowledge.

Time series classification (TSC) aims to predict the class label of a given time series, which is critical to a rich set of application areas such as economics and medicine. State-of-the-art TSC methods have mostly focused on classification accuracy and efficiency, without considering the interpretability of their classifications, which is an important property required by modern applications such as appliance modeling and legislation such as the European General Data Protection Regulation. To address this gap, we propose a novel TSC method - the Randomized-Supervised Time Series Forest (r-STSF). r-STSF is highly efficient, achieves state-of-the-art classification accuracy and enables interpretability. r-STSF takes an efficient interval-based approach to classify time series according to aggregate values of discriminatory sub-series (intervals). To achieve state-of-the-art accuracy, r-STSF builds an ensemble of randomized trees using the discriminatory sub-series. It uses four time series representations, nine aggregation functions and a supervised binary-inspired search combined with a feature ranking metric to identify highly discriminatory sub-series. The discriminatory sub-series enable interpretable classifications. Experiments on extensive datasets show that r-STSF achieves state-of-the-art accuracy while being orders of magnitude faster than most existing TSC methods. It is the only classifier from the state-of-the-art group that enables interpretability. Our findings also highlight that r-STSF is the best TSC method when classifying complex time series datasets.